On another thread, there was a bit of thread drift (guilty as charged)
about a topic of interest to me (considering that I have exceeded the predicted years allotted to an infant in the year 1939 A.D, the year in which I made my debut on this planet)!
The discussion of how much we can expect longevity to increase over the next few decades/generations (provided, of course, that we humans don't continue down a path the will lead to the demise of us all, regardless of age!)
![:( []](./images/smilies/icon_arrrgh.gif "Arrgh!")
That lead me to thinking (always a dangerous thing for me!) about historical mortality rates. Many folks point to the significant increase of life expectancy within recorded history.
And it is true that we do live longer now than a few centuries ago but much of that increased expectancy is due to a very dramatic reduction of infant mortality.
For example, a baby born to
Upper Paleolithic parents would be likely to die before age 33. However, should she live to age 15, she could reasonably expect to live an additional 39 years, or to age 54.
That trend is pretty representative throughout history (other than times when particularly bad mass extinctions such as caused by the Bubonic Plague happened),
Mortality adjusted for age
According to
This Table, when I was born in 1939, my life expectancy was 62.81 years.
In 1959 at age 20, I could expect to live 50.25 more years or to age 70.25
In 1999 at age 60, I still had 19.8 more years to go or to age 79.8
The table stops at 2004 and gives only expectancies for every ten years but at age 73 (especially given that most of my immediate ancestors have lived well into their 80s and 90s, a few even reaching the century mark and assuming that my dear wife remains tolerant of my many foibles), I can expect another fifteen or more years of life.
(though I’m not sure I really want that many — depends on how healthy I remain. Of course it’s up to God on both these counts).
My point is, that the most significant increase in life expectancy at birth. A Upper Paleolithic baby life expectancy was 33. Mine was 62 — nearly twice as long.
However, if that baby reached 15, he could expect to live to age 54. At age 15, my life expectance rose to age 69 or 23% longer.
A 21 year old in medieval Britain could expect to live nearly as long as could I at age 20. (64 compared to 70)
So it is the newborn whose life expectancy has grown most dramatically.
And James could well be correct that a human has been born that will live to age 200. Medical science seems to increase exponentially.
(The caveat, alas, is that doesn’t appear to be the case with our Holiness as a species and God may step in before that record is achieved!)
_________________
In Christ,
Jim B
I will consider your position if stated with firm, well-thought-out, quiet reasoning. Hateful diatribe, ad hominem attacks and shouted rhetoric don't impress.
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